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SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016
1100 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016

Evening satellite imagery indicates that Alex continues to generate
a complex of curved convective bands, and an eye has been trying to
form inside the innermost band.  Satellite intensity estimates are
55-65 kt from TAFB and 55 kt from SAB.  In addition, recent ASCAT-B
data showed winds of 50 kt about 30 n mi southeast of the center.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt,
and this could be a little conservative.  Even though Alex has
strengthened, the system is still underneath an upper-level trough,
and it has not yet developed the upper-level outflow characteristic
of a tropical cyclone.

Alex has continued to turn toward the left and the initial motion
is now 035/15.  The cyclone is expected to turn northward during
the next 12-24 hours due to the influence of a large extratropical
low over the northwestern Atlantic.  Alex is expected to turn more
northwestward on the northeast side of this low after 48 hours,
with this motion continuing until the two system merge between
72-96 hours.  The new forecast track is very similar to the
previous track, and it calls for Alex to pass near or over the
Azores in about 36 hours.

The subtropical storm is expected to move over colder sea surface
temperatures during the next day or so, and little change in
strength is expected during that time.  After that, the cyclone
should gradually intensify during and after extratropical
transition, which should be complete at about the time the cyclone
passes near or through the Azores.  The new intensity forecast is
stronger than the previous forecast and shows Alex as a storm-force
cyclone for the next 72 hours.

Gale and storm force winds, as well as locally heavy rains, are
likely to affect portions of the Azores beginning late Thursday or
early Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 28.7N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 30.6N  28.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 34.2N  27.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 39.3N  27.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  16/0000Z 45.7N  29.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  17/0000Z 58.0N  37.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  18/0000Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

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