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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016
1100 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016

Surface observations, scatterometer, and geostationary satellite
data indicate that Alex has weakened, and the current intensity
estimate is 60 kt.  Wind and pressure observations from Terceira
along with the scatterometer data indicate that the center is
tilted north-northeastward with height, indicative of some
south-southwesterly vertical shear.  The global models show
significant thermal advection developing over the eastern portion
of the circulation very soon, and observation from the western
Azores show cold air advection.  These factors indicate that Alex
will likely become an extratropical cyclone later today.  Some
restrengthening due to baroclinic processes is possible in the short
term, but the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to merge with or
become absorbed by another extratropical low within 48 hours.

Alex continues to accelerate and is now moving about 360/24.  A
gradual turn to the northwest is expected as the system rotates
around a broader cyclonic gyre over the northern Atlantic.  The
official forecast track is roughly in the middle of the dynamical
guidance.

The forecast points and wind radii are based mostly on guidance
from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 39.3N  27.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 45.1N  28.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  16/1200Z 52.7N  31.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  17/0000Z 57.0N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  17/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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