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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The center of Bonnie has become exposed about 50 n mi to the
southeast of a bursting area of deep convection due to strong
southerly vertical wind shear. Despite this ragged appearance, data
from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found
some believable SFMR winds northwest of the center that support
increasing the initial intensity to 40 kt. Little change in
intensity is expected before the center moves near or onto
the South Carolina coast on Sunday, with weakening to a tropical
depression expected in about 36 hours. Shear, dry air, and cool SSTs
should result in Bonnie becoming a remnant low by 72 hours, although
I wouldn't be surprised if this occurred a little sooner.

Bonnie has moved little since the last advisory, with the 3 most
recent aircraft fixes all within about 5 miles of each other. The
cyclone should begin to move north-northwestward and then northward
during the next 12-24 hours between a mid/upper-level trough
advancing into the eastern United States and a building ridge near
and west of Bermuda. After that time, a weakening Bonnie should move
slowly northeastward through the end of the period. The new NHC
forecast is near the previous one through 12 hours. After that time
the official NHC track has been adjusted to the right of the
previous one but lies left of and a bit slower than the GFS/ECMWF
consensus out of respect for continuity. Note that the the shift in
the guidance envelope at 24 hours and beyond is largely due to the
fact that Bonnie hasn't moved much this evening.

The primary impact from Bonnie will be locally heavy rainfall, which
is already occurring over portions of coastal South Carolina.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 31.0N  79.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 31.8N  80.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 32.7N  80.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/1200Z 33.1N  79.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  31/0000Z 33.5N  78.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  01/0000Z 34.3N  77.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0000Z 35.0N  76.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0000Z 35.5N  75.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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