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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
500 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016

Deep convection had essentially vanished, but a new puff of
thunderstorms redeveloped east of the center during the last few
hours.  The low-level circulation remains exposed west of the
convective mass due to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear.  An
earlier ASCAT pass showed reliable 33-kt winds when the cyclone was
devoid of convection.  It is assumed that, with the new convective
burst, tropical-storm-force winds still likely exist.  Thus, the
initial wind speed estimate is held at 35 kt.  A further increase in
shear and Bonnie's movement over 22 deg C water should cause the
cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours.  Global models
show Bonnie opening up into a trough by 48 hours, with its remnants
absorbed by a frontal zone over the central North Atlantic soon
after that.  The new NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement
with the previous one and the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.

The initial motion estimate is 090/10. Bonnie continues to be
carried eastward along the southern edge of a nearly zonal flow
over the western Atlantic.  The track model guidance shows Bonnie
moving just south of due east with additional acceleration prior to
dissipation.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted a bit southward and
is slightly slower than the previous forecast, following the
multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 35.9N  68.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 35.5N  65.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 34.9N  62.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1800Z 34.4N  58.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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