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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

The depression has changed little in organization since this
morning.  The center is exposed well to the west of a linear band
of deep convection that extends from the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico southward across western Cuba and into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.  The initial intensity has been held at 30
kt.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
sampling the convective band to see if there are stronger winds.

Although environmental conditions are not very conducive for
strengthening, the depression is expected to become a tropical
storm before it reaches the coast of Florida late Monday.  The NHC
forecast is closest to the GFS and ECMWF models that indicate modest
deepening and bring the system to tropical storm strength tonight or
Monday.  The system is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone
over the western Atlantic in 2 to 3 days.

The depression is moving northward at about 10 kt.  The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory.
The depression is expected to move north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed between a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern
Texas and a ridge over the western Atlantic.  The track guidance
remains in very good agreement through 48 hours.  Later in the
forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward in
deep-layer southwesterly flow over the western Atlantic.

The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 23.3N  87.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 25.1N  87.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 28.0N  85.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 31.0N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  07/1800Z 34.0N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  08/1800Z 41.9N  58.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/1800Z 48.0N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1800Z 53.5N  35.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

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