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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating
Earl several hours ago indicated that the central pressure had
fallen to 996 mb or even lower.  Therefore the intensity was
increased to 50 kt.  Some higher surface wind speeds were reported
from the aircraft's SFMR instrument, but these are believed to have
been rain-inflated. The storm is gradually becoming better
organized, with some developing banding features seen on satellite
images. With low shear and SSTs approaching 30 C along the projected
track, additional strengthening is likely and the NHC forecast calls
for Earl to become a hurricane prior to landfall.  This is in close
agreement with the latest SHIPS guidance and only slightly above
the model consensus.  Weakening will occur after the cyclone makes
landfall over Yucatan, and the amount of restrengthening in 2-3
days is highly dependent on how far Earl moves into the southern Bay
of Campeche.

Based on aircraft and satellite center fixes, the initial motion is
estimated to be 280/14 kt.  The track forecast reasoning is
essentially unchanged from the previous advisory package.  A large
and nearly stationary mid-tropospheric high pressure system
centered over the southern Great Plains should prevent the tropical
cyclone from moving significantly northward.  The official forecast
track is close to the model consensus for the first 48 hours and is
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF tracks thereafter, with the former
model's track to the north of the latter one.  This is fairly
similar to the previous NHC forecast.

The new intensity forecast has necessitated the issuance of a
hurricane warning for the coast of Belize and a portion of the coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 16.4N  83.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 16.7N  84.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 17.1N  87.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 17.8N  89.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/0000Z 18.4N  91.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  06/0000Z 19.0N  95.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  07/0000Z 19.5N  99.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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