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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane which was recently in Earl
did not measure any hurricane-force winds, and the satellite
presentation has not changed much during the past few hours. The
cloud pattern continues to have a couple of cyclonically curved
convective bands with an intermittent banding type eye. On this
basis, the initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this advisory.
The cyclone still has several hours over the warm waters of the Gulf
of Honduras, and there are no apparent inhibiting factors to impede
Earl to strengthen a little. The NHC forecast still calls for Earl
to become a hurricane before landfall in Belize. NOAA and US Air
Force Hurricane Hunter planes will be in the area later today.

There has been no significant change in track, and the best estimate
of the initial motion is toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt.
Steering flow is very well established, and this pattern will
continue to move Earl over Belize and the Yucatan peninsula.
Earl is expected to be over water in the southern Bay of Campeche
for only a few hours, reducing the chances of re-intensification
there.

Earl has become a larger system, and its hazards, primarily
rainfall, will affect a large portion of Central America,
the Yucatan peninsula and eastern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 17.1N  86.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 17.5N  87.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 18.0N  90.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/0600Z 18.2N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/1800Z 18.5N  94.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  06/1800Z 18.5N  97.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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