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HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

Earl has been under close surveillance by Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter planes and the Belize Meteorological Service radar
this evening.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found peak 700 mb
flight-level winds of 72 kt which converts to a surface wind of 65
kt, and this is used for the advisory intensity.  Belize radar
imagery shows that the eyewall has been fluctuating between an open
and closed structure over the past several hours.  There is little
time left for Earl to strengthen before the center reaches the
coast, and no significant intensification is anticipated before
landfall.  A steady weakening trend will commence after the
tropical cyclone moves inland.  Based on the latest track
guidance, the center is forecast to only barely emerge into the
extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Thursday, and this should limit
reintensification at that time.  Earl is expected to become a
remnant low and dissipate over the high mountains of south-central
Mexico by the weekend or sooner.

Earl continues to move slightly north of due west or 280/13 kt.
The cyclone remains embedded in a well-defined steering flow to the
south of a large and slow-moving mid-tropospheric high pressure
system.  Little change has been made to the previous official
forecast track and the current NHC forecast remains close to the
multi-model consensus.

After landfall, the biggest concern with Earl is rainfall.  Global
models depict the system becoming enveloped within a much
larger-scale cyclonic gyre that will cover much of southern Mexico
in a couple of days.  This weather pattern will likely lead to
copious rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches
possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 17.4N  87.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 17.7N  89.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  05/0000Z 18.2N  91.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/1200Z 18.5N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  06/0000Z 18.8N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  07/0000Z 20.0N  98.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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