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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

Satellite imagery, along with Mexican surface and radar data, shows
that the center of Earl is now near the southern coast of the Bay
of Campeche west-southwest of Ciudad del Carmen.  The associated
convection is poorly organized, although radar data shows bands of
low-topped showers that are not currently apparent in infrared
imagery.  There are no recent observations near the area of maximum
winds over the Bay of Campeche, so the initial intensity is held at
35 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory.

The initial motion is 285/10.  A large mid-level ridge near the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast should lead to a continued
west-northwestward to westward motion for the next 48 hours or so,
with this motion taking the center of Earl along the coast of the
Bay of Campeche into mainland Mexico.  The new forecast track is
similar to the previous track and lies just north of the various
consensus models.

The center of Earl should emerge over the Bay of Campeche later
today before final landfall in mainland Mexico.  However,
significant strengthening is not expected due to the proximity to
land and the current level of disorganization.  After landfall,
Earl should weaken and dissipate over the mountains of central and
eastern Mexico.

The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a
large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the
combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre
over the area enhances the rainfall potential.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 18.4N  92.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 18.5N  94.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  06/0600Z 18.7N  95.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  06/1800Z 18.9N  97.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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