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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1000 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

...EARL MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 91.7W
ABOUT 40 MILES...60 KM SSE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the southern Gulf coast of Mexico from Ciudad del Carmen westward
to Laguna Verde.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde Mexico.

Interests along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of Earl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 91.7 West.  Earl is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a
west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next day
or two.  On the forecast track, the center of Earl will be moving
near the coast along the extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through Friday.  Weakening
is expected on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the
warning area on Friday.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Guatemala and the Mexican states
of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana, Tabasco and Veracruz into Saturday
morning.  Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in
northern Guatemala and the central part of the Mexican state of
Chiapas.  These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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