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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

...CENTER OF EARL NOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 92.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde Mexico.

Interests elsewhere along the southern Bay of Campeche should
monitor the progress of Earl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 92.8 West. Earl is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn
toward the west and a decrease in forward speed are expected later
today.  On the forecast track, the center of Earl will be moving
near the coast along the extreme southern Bay of Campeche today and
tonight, then moving into the southeastern mainland of Mexico on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is likely today or tonight, with
weakening expected on Saturday when Earl moves into mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the
warning area today and tonight.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas,
Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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