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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
700 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

...EARL CONTINUING TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHILE MOVING
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 91.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of Earl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located inland over southeastern Mexico near latitude 18.0 North,
longitude 91.2 West.  Earl is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A
turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Friday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Earl will continue to move into
southeastern Mexico tonight, and move near the coast along the
extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Weakening is forecast, and Earl is expected to become a
tropical depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.  Ciudad del Carmen recently reported sustained
winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) with a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue for the next few
hours in a small area near and north of the center as it moves
through portions of southeastern Mexico.

RAINFALL:  Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the
Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and
Veracruz through Friday morning.  Isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central
part of the Mexican state of Chiapas.  These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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