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TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
500 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

The storm continues to have an asymmetric cloud pattern, with
little deep convection over the western and southern portions of
the circulation.  The current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt
based on WSR-88D Doppler velocity data.  Since the system is
expected to be over water for the next couple of days,  some
strengthening is now possible.  However the vertical shear, which
is currently approaching 20 kt, is forecast by the dynamical models
to increase to near 30 kt in 48 hours.  This strong shear should
limit significant intensification, as indicated in the latest
official forecast.  The NHC forecast is also very close to
the latest intensity model consensus.

Visible satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
cyclone continues moving northeastward, or around 040/5 kt.
Julia is likely to remain in a weak steering environment, near the
axis of the subtropical ridge, for the next few days.  Most
of the track guidance shows a slow and erratic motion, and the GFS
and ECMWF global models depict the system looping back to the
coast in several days.  This is also shown in the latest official
track forecast, which is shifted considerably east of the previous
NHC prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 32.1N  80.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 32.3N  80.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 32.4N  79.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 32.3N  79.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 32.2N  79.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 32.0N  80.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 32.2N  80.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 32.5N  81.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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