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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016

Nicole has developed a comma-shaped cloud pattern this evening, with
the low-level center estimated to be about midway between the end of
a long curved band and the end of an associated dry slot.  Dvorak
classifications are T3.0 from both satellite agencies, and thus the
initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

Although over waters around 29 deg C during the next few days,
Nicole is forecast to be affected by strong northwesterly to
northerly shear associated with the outflow of Hurricane Matthew to
its east. While the shear may not be strong enough to induce much
weakening, it very likely would prevent Nicole from intensifying.
By about 72 hours, the northerly shear should further increase, and
it is possible that Nicole would degenerate into a remnant low by
that time or shortly thereafter.  The new intensity forecast is
identical to the previous one, and is close to the statistical
model output that shows no change in strength through 36 hours and
then weakening. Nicole is shown to maintain tropical cyclone status
throughout the forecast period out of respect for the ECMWF
solution, which shows this possibility.

The initial motion is 300/05.  Nicole is expected to move
west-northwestward and then northward around a mid-level high
located east of Bermuda for the next couple of days. Meanwhile, a
mid-tropospheric cyclone near the northeastern United States coast
is forecast to dive southeastward toward Nicole, which should cause
the cyclone to turn eastward or even southeastward from 72-96
hours.  Should the cyclone survive, a turn toward the north is
likely by 120 hours ahead of another shortwave trough moving of the
United States east coast.  The new track forecast is shifted to
the east after 36 hours in response to the track guidance, which has
moved in that direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 24.2N  61.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 25.1N  62.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 26.5N  63.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 27.7N  64.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 28.5N  64.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 28.3N  63.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 28.3N  62.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 30.0N  62.4W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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