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HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2016

Nicole no longer has an eye in infrared satellite imagery, and the
cloud pattern suggests that 30 kt of northwesterly shear is
beginning to offset the deep convection to the southeast of the
center.  Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased,
so the initial intensity is set at 85 kt as a blend of the final-T
and CI numbers.  Strong vertical shear is expected to persist over
Nicole, increasing and turning out of the north during the next
several days.  As a result, continued weakening is anticipated, and
the intensity models indicate that Nicole's winds should gradually
diminish in strength through day 4.  By day 5, the vertical shear
may decrease, and Nicole could regain some strength at the end of
the forecast period.  The NHC intensity forecast closely follows
the ICON intensity consensus, which puts it slightly below the
previous forecast for much of the forecast period.

There has been no recent microwave data to help locate the center,
but cloud motions suggest that Nicole is drifting southward.  The
overall steering currents are expected to remain weak for several
more days.  However, for the next 48 hours, Nicole will be situated
between a digging shortwave trough and a mid-level high between it
and Hurricane Matthew, which should cause Nicole to move slowly
southward.  After that time, the cyclone could be close enough to
Matthew's circulation to cause it to turn northward.  While the
track models don't agree on how far south Nicole will move, they do
all generally show the same solutions of very little net motion
through five days.  The updated NHC track is adjusted from the
previous track forecast toward the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 27.3N  65.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 27.0N  65.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 26.1N  65.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 25.2N  64.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 24.8N  65.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 25.4N  65.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 27.5N  66.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 30.0N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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