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TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2016

The cloud pattern has not become any better organized during the
past several hours.  The low-level center is located on the
northwestern edge of the thunderstorm activity and the Dvorak
estimates have remained steady.  On this basis, the initial
intensity is kept at 50 kt. The wind radii were decreased based on
recent ASCAT passes.

Nicole is expected to move over warm waters and into weaker shear
conditions during the next 48 hours. This environment should result
in strengthening and Nicole is expected to become a hurricane during
the next 24 hours. The NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus,
which is not as aggressive as the GFS and the ECMWF intensity
forecasts. After that time, the cyclone should become embedded
within very strong wind shear, and a gradual weakening process
should begin. By the end of the forecast period, Nicole should have
become a large extratropical low.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north-
northwest or 335 degrees at 4 kt. The steering currents are weak
and Nicole should turn toward the north and move slowly around the
western edge of a subtropical ridge. By 48 hours, the cyclone will
become embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow and should
turn to the northeast with a some increase in forward speed. The
NHC forecast is just a little to the left of the previous one, and
is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCN and TVCX.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 27.1N  65.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 27.5N  66.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 28.5N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 29.5N  67.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 31.5N  66.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 36.0N  62.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  15/0600Z 40.0N  56.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 42.0N  53.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

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