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HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 AM AST SUN OCT 16 2016

The satellite presentation has changed very little during the past
several hours. The pattern consists of a convective band wrapping
around the center or an eye-like feature. The initial intensity is
kept at 75 kt. There is nothing new to report except that Nicole is
a resilient cyclone, and will probably continue as a hurricane for
the next 24 to 36 hours despite the shear and the cold waters. Both
the GFS and the ECMWF models are showing signs that by 48 hours,
Nicole will no longer have tropical characteristic, and by 72 hours,
it will be absorbed by a much large extratropical cyclone. The NHC
forecast follows the solutions of these two models.

Nicole is meandering eastward or 090 degrees at 5 kt. Since the
hurricane is cut off from the faster mid-latitude flow to its north,
little motion is anticipated during the next 24 hours. After that
time, an approaching trough should cause Nicole to accelerate and
turn more to the northeast and north-northeast until it become
absorbed by a much larger extratropical cyclone in about 3 days or
sooner.

Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the
forecast wind radii.

Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east
coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  By early
next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole
will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 39.2N  47.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 39.3N  46.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 40.2N  45.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 42.5N  43.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 46.5N  40.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  19/0600Z 56.6N  36.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
Forecaster Avila

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