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HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  34A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
200 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016

...LARGE EYE OF NICOLE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD BERMUDA...
...CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 66.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the large and distinct eye of Hurricane
Nicole was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 66.8 West.
Nicole is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn
toward the north-northeast and an increase in forward speed is
expected tonight.  A northeast turn with an additional increase in
forward speed is forecast on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the
core of Hurricane Nicole will pass near or over Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, and
Nicole could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches
Bermuda.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda
Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin
this evening.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda.  The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday.

SURF:  Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days.  These swells will create dangerous surf conditions
and rip currents.  Please refer to products being issued by the
Bermuda Weather Service.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda tonight and
early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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