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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
900 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016

The depression is not in a hurry to intensify tonight. The
circulation is better defined, and although the convection is not
very deep at this time, it is acquiring a comma-shape form, which
suggests an increase in the convective pattern organization.  The
center appears to be located on the nose of the comma, but is not
embedded within the thunderstorm activity. T-numbers from SAB, TAFB
and ADTs from CIMSS are near 2.0 on the Dvorak scale. On this
basis, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.

The depression is embedded within a very favorable environment of
low shear for intensification, and only the upwelling left by strong
Hurricane Blas could cause a delay in the intensification process.
Most of the intensity guidance shows a substantial increase in the
winds by the end of the forecast period and in fact, the SHIPS model
increases the winds to above 100 kt. The NHC forecast follows the
model trend and makes the depression a hurricane in 3 days, but this
could happen earlier.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees
at 7 kt. Most of the global models amplify a very strong and nearly
stationary subtropical ridge which extends from the United States
westward across the Pacific. This steering pattern will likely force
the cyclone to move westward and even south of due west for 3 to
4 days. After that time the cyclone will begin to turn more to the
west-northwest around the southwestern periphery of the ridge. Most
of the track models are in agreement with this solution, and the NHC
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, but favoring the
consensus between the GFS and the ECMWF global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 12.4N 109.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 12.5N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 12.5N 112.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 12.5N 114.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 12.5N 115.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 12.5N 119.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 12.5N 122.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 14.5N 126.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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