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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
300 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016

The cloud pattern of the depression is showing signs of becoming
better organized.  There has been an increase in central convection
near the estimated center location and in convective banding to the
north and southeast of the center.  The initial intensity remains 30
kt based on a blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, while the
cyclone moves over a cool patch of SSTs in the wake of Hurricane
Blas.  After that time, the intensification rate should increase as
the cyclone will be moving over warm SSTs in a low shear
environment.  In 4 to 5 days, the shear is expected to increase and
SSTs cool along the track, which should result in weakening.  The
new NHC intensity forecast is a little below the consensus aid
IVCN during the first 24 hours and then close to the consensus
through 48 hours.  Beyond that time the official forecast is higher
than the consensus but not as aggressive as the SHIPS model.

The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 275/05 given the
uncertainty in the exact center location.  The cyclone should be
steered more quickly westward by a building subtropical ridge to the
north through the next 2 to 3 days.  After that time, a west-
northwestward turn is forecast as the system reaches the
southwestern edge of the ridge. The guidance has shifted northward
this cycle in the short term, in particular the ECMWF, which is now
well north of the rest of the models through 48 hours.  The new NHC
track has been adjusted to the north this cycle, but still lies a
little south of the multi-model consensus.  Confidence in the
details of the track forecast is lower than normal given that the
system is still organizing.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 12.5N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 12.7N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 13.0N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 13.2N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 13.5N 119.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 14.2N 123.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 15.7N 127.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 17.3N 131.2W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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