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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
900 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016

The cloud pattern of the tropical depression has become better
organized, with first-light visible imagery showing a ragged central
dense overcast surrounded by a complex of outer bands.  Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates are 30-35 kt, while AMSU and Advanced
Dvorak technique estimates from CIMSS are near 50 kt.  Based on
this, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Celia with winds
of 40 kt.

The initial motion is 275/6.  There is little change from the
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory.  Celia should be
steered westward with an increase in forward speed by a building
subtropical ridge to the north through the next 2 to 3 days.  After
that time, a west-northwestward turn is forecast as the system
nears the southwestern edge of the ridge.  The guidance has nudged
a little to the north for the first 36 hours or so, and thus this
part of the forecast track is also adjusted northward.  Otherwise,
the track is an update of the previous NHC advisory.

Celia is forecast to be in an environment of light vertical wind
shear for the next 3-4 days.  However, during the next 24-36 hours
the cyclone will pass near or over an area of cooler sea surface
temperatures left in the wake of Hurricane Blas.  This should slow
intensification during this time.  The storm is expected to reach
warmer water from 36-96 hours and significant strengthening is
expected at that time.  The intensity forecast calls for a peak
intensity of 90 kt, which is below that forecast by the SHIPS and
LGEM models.  From 96-120 hours, Celia should again encounter cooler
sea surface temperatures, which should cause the cyclone to weaken.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 12.6N 112.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 12.9N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 13.3N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 13.5N 118.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 13.8N 120.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 14.5N 125.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 17.5N 133.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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