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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
300 PM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016

The cloud pattern of Celia is currently comprised of a complex of
curved convective bands around a small area of central convection,
which is less widespread than 6 hours ago.  Subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain 30-35 kt, while AMSU,
Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates, and satellite consensus
estimates from CIMSS range from 40-55 kt.  The initial intensity
remains 40 kt for this advisory.

The center of Celia has jogged northward during the past few hours,
and the initial motion is now 290/5.  Other than that, the forecast
track and philosophy have changed little since the last advisory.
Celia should turn westward during the next 12 hours due to a
building subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone, and it
subsequently should continue westward with an increase in forward
speed through the next 2 to 3 days.  After that time, a
west-northwestward turn is forecast as the system nears the
southwestern edge of the ridge.  The guidance is tightly clustered
in support of this scenario, with no significant outliers in the
reliable dynamical models or the consensus models.  The new forecast
track is nudged a little to the north of the previous track for the
first 72 hours or so based on the current position and motion. After
that, it is similar to the previous forecast.

Celia is forecast to be in an environment of light vertical wind
shear for the next 4-5 days.  However, during the next 24 hours the
cyclone will pass near or over an area of cooler sea surface
temperatures left in the wake of Hurricane Blas.  This should slow
intensification, and the intensity forecast at 24 hours is thus
lower than most of the guidance.  From 24-72 hours, the storm is
expected to reach warmer water, and significant strengthening is
likely due to the favorable upper-level winds. The intensity
forecast now calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt at 72 hours, which
is in best agreement with the LGEM model.  From 72-120 hours, Celia
should again encounter cooler sea surface temperatures, which should
cause the cyclone to weaken.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 13.0N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 13.3N 114.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 13.7N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 14.0N 119.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 14.2N 121.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 15.0N 126.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 16.5N 130.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 18.5N 134.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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