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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016

Celia has well-defined curved banding features, but the convection
is not very deep at this time.  A fairly symmetric upper-level
outflow pattern is evident, consistent with a low-shear environment.
The Dvorak data T-number from TAFB was slightly lower and that from
SAB was unchanged, and the current intensity estimate is kept at
70 kt for this advisory.  Sea surface temperatures should be
marginally supportive for strengthening for another 24 hours or so,
and thereafter slightly cooler waters are expected to cause a
weakening trend to commence.  As noted in the earlier advisory the
shear over the tropical cyclone is likely to remain low for the next
several days, and this should keep the rate of weakening rather
slow.  The official intensity forecast is very close to the latest
Decay-SHIPS guidance.

There has been no significant change to the motion, which is
estimated to be 270/11 kt.  The track forecast seems to be fairly
straightforward and there is little change to the prognostic
reasoning.  Celia will be nearing the western periphery of a
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, and this should cause the
motion to gradually bend toward the west-northwest during the next
couple of days.  Afterwards, the subtropical ridge rebuilds to the
north of the cyclone resulting in a turn back toward the west by
the end of the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast is very
similar to that from the previous advisory, and is also close to
the dynamical model consensus.  This is between the latest GFS and
ECMWF solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 15.0N 123.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 15.1N 125.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 15.5N 127.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 16.2N 129.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 17.0N 130.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 18.9N 134.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  15/0000Z 20.7N 138.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 21.5N 143.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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