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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016

The cloud pattern of Celia has changed somewhat, as the hurricane
appears to be completing an eyewall replacement cycle.  A 50-60 n mi
wide eye now is embedded in a relatively small central dense
overcast, which gives Celia a somewhat annular appearance.
Subjective and objective satellite estimates have changed little
since the past advisory, so the initial intensity remains 85 kt.

Celia has continued to turn to the right and the initial motion is
now 300/9.  The hurricane is near the western periphery of a
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, and a northwestward motion is
likely for the next couple of days.  A mid-level cyclone seen in
water vapor imagery near 29N 151W is expected to weaken to a trough
and move northward after 24-48 hours, which would allow a ridge to
build back in to the north of the tropical cyclone.  This
development would steer Celia in a more westerly direction in the
later part of the forecast period. The tightly clustered track
models have again shifted a little northward from their previous
predictions, and the official forecast shows a similar small shift.
The new forecast track lies near the various consensus models in
the middle of the guidance envelope.

Celia should be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures for
the next several days, and the dynamical models forecast increasing
northwesterly shear after 48 hours.  This combination should cause
Celia to weaken, and all of the intensity guidance supports this
scenario.  The new intensity forecast remains in best agreement with
the intensity consensus IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 16.2N 127.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 17.0N 129.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 18.2N 131.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 19.4N 133.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 20.4N 135.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 22.0N 139.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 22.5N 144.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 23.0N 148.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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