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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016

Although the cloud pattern remains well organized, the convection
has weakened considerably during the past several hours while the
circulation moves over cooler waters.  The eye, or what is left
of it, has become large and ragged with the deepest convection
located within a curved band to the east. Given that the numbers
from both TAFB and SAB have decreased to 4.0 on the Dvorak scale,
the initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt, which is an intensity
higher than one can expect from these numbers. However, due to
continuity and Dvorak constraints, this is probably a good estimate
at this time.

Celia is moving toward increasingly cooler waters, and beyond 2
days, the shear is expected to increase. These two factors should
result in weakening. Most of the models call for gradual weakening
and so does the NHC forecast, which in fact, is very close to the
SHIPS model.

Celia is now moving toward the northwest at 10 kt around the
subtropical ridge. Global models forecast the ridge to amplify a
little, and this could force Celia on a more west-northwesterly
track later today or Wednesday. By the end of the forecast period,
Celia should have become a shallow cyclone, and will likely move on
a westward track steered by the low-level flow. The NHC forecast is
very near the multi-model consensus and continues to be very
similar to the previous forecast.  Since the track guidance is in
good agreement, there is high confidence in the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 16.8N 128.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 17.8N 129.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 18.9N 131.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 19.9N 133.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 21.0N 136.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 22.1N 140.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 22.5N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 23.5N 149.5W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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