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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016

The cloud pattern consists of a large ragged eye surrounded by a
ring of moderate convection and a convective curved band to the
east of the eye. The overall amount of convection has been
decreasing during the past 12 hours. The Dvorak T-numbers have
decreased slightly during the day, and the best estimate of the
current intensity is 70 kt. The circulation of Celia has continued
to move over increasingly cooler waters, and SHIPS guidance
indicates a gradual increase in shear. On this basis, the NHC
forecast calls for weakening, and Celia is forecast to be a tropical
depression in about 3 days or sooner.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest
or 300 degrees at about 11 kt. Global models continue to show a
persistent moderate subtropical ridge north of Celia. This pattern
will continue to steer the cyclone on a west-northwesterly track
for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, Celia should have become
a shallow cyclone, and will likely move on a westward track steered
by the low-level flow. The track guidance continues to be in very
good agreement, and there is high confidence in the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 17.4N 129.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 18.4N 130.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 19.6N 133.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 20.5N 135.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 21.3N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 22.5N 141.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 23.0N 146.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 24.0N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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