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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016

The convective cloud tops surrounding the large ragged eye of Celia
have been gradually warming since earlier today.  Based on
subjective Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB as well as
objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS, the intensity is reduced to
65 kt.  Since the tropical cyclone will be moving over cooler
waters, into a stabler air mass, and westerly shear is forecast to
increase, a continued weakening trend is expected.  Celia should
weaken into a tropical depression by the time it reaches the
Central Pacific Hurricane Basin.  The official intensity forecast
is a little below the latest model consensus and a little above the
latest LGEM guidance.

The large eye has been moving between west-northwest and northwest
at around 10 kt.  There is no reason to make any significant
changes to the previous NHC forecast track.  A mid-level
subtropical ridge is predicted by the global models to remain to
the north of the cyclone for the next several days.  Celia is
likely to become an increasingly shallow system, so later in the
forecast period, it should turn toward the west following the
low-level flow.  The official forecast is close to the consensus of
the dynamical guidance, which are fairly tightly clustered.  This
is basically an extension/update of the previous NHC track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 18.0N 130.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 18.9N 131.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 20.0N 133.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 21.0N 135.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 21.9N 138.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 22.7N 142.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 23.5N 147.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 24.0N 152.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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