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HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016
200 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016

Darby is a little better organized this afternoon.  Visible
satellite imagery shows a well-defined convective band wrapping
almost 1.5 times around the center, which has resulted in the
development of a banding-type eye.  Subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates from the various agencies have remained steady or
increased slightly since this morning; therefore the initial
intensity is raised to 75 kt.  Darby may still have to contend with
some northeasterly shear for another 12-24 hours, but the shear then
decreases after that time.  On the other hand, oceanic heat content
values ahead of the hurricane fall off precipitously in about 12
hours.  Considering these competing factors, some gradual
strengthening is expected during the next day or so, followed by
slow weakening until the end of the forecast period due to cooler
SSTs.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the SHIPS and
Florida State Superensemble, which are at the top end of the
intensity guidance.

Darby continues moving westward, or 280/12 kt.  Strong mid-level
ridging to the north of the hurricane is expected to persist for
much of the forecast period, keeping Darby on a westward or perhaps
west-northwestward path through day 5.  The track guidance remains
tightly clustered, as it has been for the past couple of days,
although the overall guidance envelope shifted northward on this
cycle, especially through day 3.  Therefore, the official NHC track
forecast has been adjusted northward, but it is near the southern
edge of the guidance suite close to the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and
UKMET.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 15.9N 118.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 16.8N 121.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 17.2N 123.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 17.5N 125.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 17.8N 129.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 18.2N 134.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 18.5N 138.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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