ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Darby appears to be gradually weakening. Although the annular hurricane still has a well organized cloud pattern and distinct eye, the cloud tops in the eyewall have warmed during the last several hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is lowered a little to 85 kt. This intensity estimate is based on a blend of the Dvorak Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The hurricane is currently over cool, 25 deg C waters and embedded in a fairly stable air mass. Since Darby is expected to move over even cooler water and into a drier air mass during the next couple of days, steady weakening is predicted. After that time, Darby will likely track over slightly warmer water, but it will also be moving into an environment of increasing westerly shear, which should allow for some continued weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is in good agreement with the intensity model consensus. The hurricane is moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 8 kt. This general heading with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days as mid-level ridging remains in place to the north of the tropical cyclone. Beyond that time, a motion slightly south of due west is forecast when the shallower system is steered by the low- to mid-level flow. The NHC official track forecast is nudged to the north of the previous one to come in line with the latest consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 18.2N 126.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 18.3N 128.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 18.6N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 19.0N 132.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 19.4N 134.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 20.1N 139.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 19.8N 143.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 18.9N 148.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN