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HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016
200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016

Visible and enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery show that Darby has
developed a banding eye feature during the past six hours.
Consequently, Dvorak subjective intensity CI-numbers from TAFB
and SAB support maintaining Darby at 65 kt for this advisory.
Darby is currently moving over a slightly warmer ocean and is
expected to remain over these marginally warm SSTs through the
period.  Accordingly, only gradual weakening is forecast during the
next several days.  Beyond the 48 hour period, however, gradually
increasing west-southwesterly shear and a more stable thermodynamic
environment could potentially hasten the weakening trend, similar to
what the LGEM and the Decay SHIPS models are indicating.  The NHC
intensity forecast is based primarily on the IVCN multi-model
consensus, but remains above the Decay SHIPS and LGEM models beyond
day 2.

The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt, as Darby is being steered
westward by a narrow subtropical ridge to the north.  There has been
no change in the philosophy of the track forecast.  A generally
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through
the period, with a brief turn slightly to the south of west
around day 3.  The official NHC forecast is similar to the
previous advisory and sides with the TVCE multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 19.0N 132.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 19.4N 133.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 19.9N 135.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 20.2N 138.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 20.1N 140.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 19.4N 145.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 18.9N 149.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 19.4N 152.4W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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