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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
900 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

The convective structure of the tropical cyclone improved this
evening with a curved band reaching halfway around its
center.  Correspondingly, the subjective TAFB and SAB Dvorak
classifications each bumped up to a CI number of 2.5, or 35 kt.
This is also consistent with the earlier scatterometer pass which
showed a maximum of 30 kt at 17Z, when the convective structure was
not as organized.  Thus the system is now a tropical storm, both the
fifth one of the eastern North Pacific season as well as the fifth
one in a very busy two-week period.

Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest at about 10 kt, south
of an east-west oriented subtropical ridge.  The cyclone should be
steered toward the west or west-northwest at a slightly slower
forward speed for the next few days.  All of the reliable global
and regional model track guidance are in close agreement and the
NHC official track is nearly the same as that from the previous
advisory.

The intensity forecast, however, is a bit more uncertain.  In the
short term, the environment looks generally conducive with moderate
northeasterly vertical shear, very warm water, and quite moist
conditions.  While the shear drops to very low values in about two
days, Estelle should start moving over cooler water induced by the
upwelling and mixing from the Blas-Celia-Darby trio of storms ahead
of it.  Thus it is anticipated that the cyclone should steadily
intensify and then it may reach its peak strength at about day
three.  At the longer lead times, gradual weakening may commence if
the track stays over the cooler water.  This forecast is based upon
the consensus of the Decay-SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models and is
slightly higher than the previous advisory through day three and
about the same at days four and five.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 15.2N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 15.7N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 16.1N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 16.3N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 16.7N 114.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 17.5N 117.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 18.1N 120.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 19.0N 125.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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