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TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
900 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Deep convection associated with Frank has become a little better
organized during the past several hours, with conventional and
microwave satellite imagery showing a band trying to wrap around
the east side of the center.  The initial intensity is increased
to 55 kt in best agreement with the intensity estimate from SAB and
the CIMSS ADT.  An apparent center at the top of the convection is
a little south of the low-level center seen in microwave imagery,
which may be due to ongoing northerly shear.

Frank has turned west-northwestward with the motion now 295/10.
The storm is on the south side of a east-west oriented deep-layer
ridge extending westward from the southern United States into the
eastern Pacific.  The dynamical models forecast this ridge to
remain in place with slight weakening during the next several days.
This should allow Frank to continue generally west-northwestward
with some decrease in forward speed through the forecast period.
The track guidance has changed little since the previous advisory,
and the new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast
that lies near the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Frank should remain in a moderate shear environment and over warm
sea surface temperatures for the next 48 hours or so, which should
allow slow strengthening.  After that time, decreasing sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track should cause gradual
weakening.  The new intensity forecast has a slightly higher peak
intensity than that of the previous advisory, and it is in good
agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM models.

Swells associated with Frank will affect the coasts of southern Baja
California and the state of Sinaloa beginning on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 18.3N 109.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 18.7N 110.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 19.2N 111.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 19.7N 113.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 20.2N 114.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 21.5N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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