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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016
200 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016

Howard's cloud pattern has become less organized since the last
advisory.  Although the cyclone has plenty of banding features,
they are generally confined to eastern half of its circulation.  The
low-level center has also recently become exposed, possibly due to
westerly shear.  Satellite classifications are T3.0/45 kt and
T3.5/55 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.  The initial intensity
estimate is kept at 45 kt, on the lower end of these estimates
because of the cyclone's degraded appearance.

The initial motion estimate is 295/11.  A subtropical ridge north
of Howard is primarily responsible for the cyclone's steering, but a
mid- to upper-level low to the west of it has been imparting a
greater northerly component of motion.  This general motion with
some slight increase in forward speed is likely for another couple
of days, after which time a turn toward the west is expected.  The
turn should occur once Howard weakens and becomes a much shallower
cyclone embedded in the trade-wind flow.  The new NHC track
forecast is only adjusted slightly north of the previous one and is
quite close to the multi-model consensus.

Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently high to allow for some
intensification during the next 12 hours or so, but westerly shear
over Howard may temper that.  Weakening should commence in about 24
hours, and this rate of weakening should soon become faster as the
large-scale thermodynamic become increasingly hostile.  Remnant low
status is forecast in 48 hours, and dissipation is likely just
after day 5.  The new NHC intensity forecast is somewhat reduced
relative to the previous one and is a little lower than the multi-
model consensus after 24 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 17.2N 125.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 18.4N 127.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 19.7N 129.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 20.8N 132.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 21.8N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1800Z 22.9N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z 23.3N 146.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z 23.4N 151.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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