ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016

The deep convection associated with the tropical depression is
showing some limited banding features in combination with a
developing central dense overcast.  Dvorak classification numbers
are gradually rising, though a blend of TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS-ADT
values still indicates an intensity of about 30 kt.

A 1941Z AMSR2 microwave image indicated that the center of the
system was slightly farther north than earlier indicated.
Extrapolating forward in time from that point suggests a center
that is near the northeastern edge of the deep convection, perhaps
reflecting the moderate northeasterly shear affecting the cyclone.
The initial motion is assessed at a fast 17 kt toward the
west-northwest, primarily due to the steering of an east-west
extended deep-layer ridge to its north.  The tightly packed track
guidance suggests a turn toward the west at a slightly slower rate
of forward speed during the next few days.  The NHC track forecast
is slightly north of the previous advisory for the next day due to
the more northerly initial motion, and then nearly the same out
through the end of the period.  This is supported by the global
and HWRF model consensus.

The system should only gradually intensify during the next
day or so because of the moderate northeasterly shear and as the
system develops an inner core structure.  A more steady
strengthening is anticipated out to about day three as the shear
relaxes and the system moves over 28C water and through a very
moist and unstable atmosphere.  Around day four or five, the cyclone
may start gradually weakening as SSTs decrease and the shear
increases again.  The NHC intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN
consensus and peaks just slightly higher than that from the
previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 13.9N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 14.5N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 15.1N 123.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 15.4N 126.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 15.7N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 16.5N 133.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 18.5N 142.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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