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TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
200 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016

The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has gradually improved
since yesterday afternoon, with an increase in banding over the
western portion of the circulation.  Microwave images show
that the center is located near the northeastern edge of the
convective band due to moderate northeasterly shear, but a new
burst of deep convection has very recently developed near the
estimate center location.  Although earlier ASCAT data showed
maximum winds around 30 kt, the recent improvement in organization
and Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support increasing the
initial intensity to 35 kt.  Ivette becomes the ninth tropical storm
to form in the eastern Pacific basin since July 2nd.

Ivette is moving westward at an atypically fast speed of 17 kt.
A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should keep
it moving westward to west-northwestward during the next several
days, with the forward speed gradually decreasing as it nears the
western portion of the ridge.  By late in the period, Ivette should
turn west-northwestward and decelerate further as a break in the
ridge develops between 140W and 150W.  The updated NHC track is
similar to the previous advisory, but has been nudged southward to
be closer to the multi-model consensus.

The northeasterly shear affecting the tropical cyclone is forecast
to decrease during the next 24 hours.  This should allow
strengthening while Ivette moves over warm water and remains
in a moist environment.  The NHC intensity forecast is above the
statistical guidance and is closer to the HWRF model, which brings
Ivette to hurricane strength in a couple of days.  Increasing
southwesterly shear, slightly cooler SSTs, and drier mid-level air
should cause gradual weakening late in the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 14.2N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 14.6N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 15.0N 124.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 15.2N 127.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 15.4N 130.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 16.0N 134.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 17.0N 138.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 18.0N 142.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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