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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

The cloud pattern of the depression has not become any better
organized since earlier today.  There is little evidence of banding
features at this time, although upper-level outflow is fairly well
defined over the northern semicircle of the cyclone.  The intensity
is held at 30 kt based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
as well as the lack of any surface observations of tropical-storm-
force winds.  Aside from some land interaction with southwestern
Mexico today, the cyclone will move over warm waters and in a low
shear environment, which should allow for strengthening.  However,
since the system is currently broad and poorly organized, only
gradual intensification is anticipated.  The official intensity
forecast is the same as the previous one and very close to the
latest SHIPS guidance.

Since the center is not yet well-defined, there is significant
uncertainty in the initial motion, which is estimated to be 300/9
kt.  The depression is expected to move around the southwestern
periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure system for the next
day or two, and then turn toward the right ahead of a trough near
southern California.  The official track forecast is similar to
that from the last advisory and in close agreement with the
multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 18.7N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 19.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 20.7N 108.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 21.7N 109.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 22.8N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 25.2N 112.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 27.5N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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