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TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
900 AM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016

A recent GPM overpass indicates that the low-level center of Kay
remains near the northern edge of the main convective area, with a
mid-level eye located to the southwest of the low-level center.
Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are
in the 45-50 kt range.  Based on these, the initial intensity
remains 45 kt, and this could be a little conservative.

The GPM data and other microwave imagery show that Kay has moved
more northward over the past several hours with an initial motion
of 345/5.  This requires a re-location of the center on this
advisory.  The track guidance is in excellent agreement that a
mid-level ridge to the north of Kay should turn the cyclone toward
the northwest and west-northwest during the next 48-72 hours.  After
that time, a more westward motion is likely as Kay becomes a shallow
low pressure area that is steered by the low-level easterlies.  The
new forecast track, which lies in the middle of the tightly-
clustered guidance envelope, is parallel to but north of the
previous track based primarily on the initial position.

On the forecast track, Kay will be moving over decreasing sea
surface temperatures and reaching the 26C isotherm between 48-72
hours.  Although environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive
before the cyclone reaches cold water, none of the intensity
guidance models are forecasting significant intensification.  Thus,
the NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous
one in showing little change in strength for the first 24 hours,
followed by gradual weakening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 20.2N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 20.6N 113.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 21.1N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 21.7N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 22.3N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 23.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 24.0N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1200Z 24.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

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