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HURRICANE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
300 AM MDT MON SEP 19 2016

A subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB, ADT intensity
estimates from UW/CIMSS, and the appearance of a faint eye on both
enhanced IR and shortwave IR satellite images indicate that Paine
has become a hurricane.  The advisory intensity is set at 65 kt in
agreement with the TAFB estimate.  Upper-level outflow is well
established over the western portion of the circulation but is
weak to the east.  Even though the vertical shear is expected to
remain low to moderate for the next 24-36 hours, Paine's hurricane
status is likely to be short-lived.  The cyclone will begin to
traverse progressively cooler SSTs later today, and water
temperatures will drop below 22 deg C within 36 hours.  This should
result in rapid weakening, and Paine is forecast to degenerate into
a remnant low in 48 hours before the center reaches the
north-central Baja California peninsula.

The initial motion estimate continues to be 315/13 kt.  Paine is
expected to turn north-northwestward, northward, and eventually
north-northeastward while moving along the western periphery of a
deep-layer anticyclone centered near Texas.  The official track
forecast is slightly faster than the previous one but near to, or a
little slower than, the latest multi-model consensus.

The wind radii have been adjusted using data from an ASCAT overpass
at 0430 UTC, which showed a slightly larger system.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the southwestern United States
during the next day or two.  This could enhance the rainfall
potential in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 20.6N 114.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 22.2N 115.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 24.4N 116.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 26.4N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 28.4N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0600Z 30.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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