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HURRICANE PAINE ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
800 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2016

...PAINE INTENSIFYING...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 115.4W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
northwestern portions of Baja California peninsula from Punta
Eugenia northward to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paine was located
near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 115.4 West. Paine is moving
toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A motion toward the
north at a slower rate of forward speed is expected by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Little change in intensity is expected
today.  Steady weakening is forecast to begin tonight and continue
through Wednesday, and Paine is expected to become a tropical storm
on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Hurricane Paine is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches across the northern Baja California peninsula with
isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches through Wednesday.

Moisture in advance of Paine will help spread rains into portions of
southern California, Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado with localized maximum amounts of 1 to 2
inches possible, mainly over the favored higher terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Stewart

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