ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE PAINE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016 800 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2016 ...PAINE IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 116.7W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paine was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 116.7 West. Paine is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a north-northeastward turn and a reduction in forward speed Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Paine is expected to approach the northwest coast of the Baja California Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Paine is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, and become a remnant low on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Hurricane Paine is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches across the northern Baja California peninsula with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches through Wednesday. Moisture in advance of Paine will help spread rains into portions of southern California, Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado with localized maximum amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible, mainly over the favored higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within a portion of the warning area by Tuesday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN