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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...PAINE WEAKENING AS IT HEADS FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 116.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paine was
located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 116.8 West.  Paine is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion
should continue today.  A turn toward the north-northeast with a
reduction in forward speed is expected tonight.  On the forecast
track, the center of Paine will approach the northwestern coast of
the Baja California peninsula tonight or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Continued rapid weakening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Paine is expected to become a remnant low by
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Paine is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches across the northern Baja California peninsula with isolated
storm total amounts of 6 inches through Wednesday.

Moisture in advance of Paine will help spread rain into portions
of southern California, Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado, with localized maximum amounts of 1 to 2
inches possible, mainly over the favored higher terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the
watch area by tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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