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TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016
800 PM PDT THU OCT 27 2016

A small area of deep convection has been ongoing more than 100 n mi
north-northeast of Seymour's center during the past few hours, but
it's not really enough to be considered organized.  Dvorak Current
Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB decreased to 3.0/45 kt at 0000
UTC, and more recent ADT estimates are even lower.  The advisory
intensity is therefore set at 40 kt.  Strong shear and colder
waters ahead of Seymour should continue the fast weakening trend,
and the cyclone is likely to be declared a remnant low in 12 hours
or less due to a lack of organized deep convection.  Based on global
model fields, the remnant low is expected to dissipate just after
48 hours.

Seymour has turned northward with an initial motion of 360/9 kt.
As a shallow, convection-less low, Seymour is expected to turn
northeastward ahead of a cold front during the next 24 hours and
then back to the north-northeast by 48 hours.  The new NHC track
forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory during the
first 24 hours, but is then nudged westward at 36 and 48 hours in
line with a general westward shift in the guidance at those times.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 22.0N 123.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 23.1N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/0000Z 24.2N 121.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1200Z 25.5N 121.1W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0000Z 27.2N 120.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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