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TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016
900 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2016

The cloud pattern has deteriorated significantly during the past
several hours and it appears that the system is degenerating in a
trough of low pressure. It is very difficult to ascertain if there
is a circulation by inspecting the conventional satellite imagery
or even earlier microwave data. Based on continuity and recent
Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is estimated generously at
40 kt.  Given the prevailing strong shear and the current trend,
additional weakening is forecast, and Otto is anticipated to become
a trough or a remnant low in about 48 hours or sooner.  This is the
solution provided by the UK, ECMWF and GFS global models.

The initial motion is uncertain given the difficulty in locating
the center. The best estimate is 260 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone
is south of a strong ridge of high pressure, and this pattern should
continue to steer the system on a general westward track until
dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z  9.0N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z  8.6N  96.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z  8.3N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z  8.3N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z  8.7N 104.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1200Z 10.0N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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