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Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017

Deep convection has redeveloped and persisted near and over Emily's
low-level center since the previous advisory, with some weak banding
features having developed in the eastern semicircle. Cirrus outflow
has also pushed back westward over the center, an indication that
the convection is feeding back into Emily's circulation. An ASCAT
pass around 1435Z revealed a closed circulation and surface winds of
30-31 kt just east of the center. Also, nearby buoy 41010 has been
reporting 27-kt winds at a 4-meter elevation for the past several
hours. Based on those wind data, the initial intensity has been
nudged upward to 30 kt.

Emily is moving 050/13 kt. The depression remains embedded in modest
southwesterly flow ahead of deep-layer trough and frontal system
along the U.S. east coast, and a general northeastward motion away
from the United States is forecast for the next several days. The
NHC official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and
lies between the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

The aforementioned ASCAT wind data also indicated that Emily is
embedded within a pre-frontal trough, and surface and upper-air data
further indicate that a weak cold front lies within 60 nmi north and
west of the depression. Given the proximity of the front and the
fact the system is interacting with a sharp upper-level trough,
Emily could transition to an extratropical low within the next
12-24h or even open up into an elongated surface trough. Owing to
this possible weak baroclinic interaction, little change in strength
is expected during the remainder of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 30.3N  77.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 31.4N  76.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  02/1800Z 33.1N  73.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  03/0600Z 34.6N  70.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  03/1800Z 35.9N  67.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  04/1800Z 37.8N  61.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  05/1800Z 39.3N  54.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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