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Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017
 
Visible satellite imagery continues to show a fairly well-organized
tropical cyclone, although infrared images indicate some warming of
the convective cloud tops.  Observations from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that the storm has a fairly broad inner core,
which is consistent with the ragged eye-like feature noted on the
visible imagery.  The current intensity is kept at 50 kt based on a
blend of SFMR and flight-level observations from the aircraft along
with sampling considerations.  Franklin has a well-defined,
symmetric upper-level outflow pattern, and some strengthening is
still expected prior to landfall. Although the cyclone could be near
hurricane strength at landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula, the broad inner core of the system would argue against
rapid intensification during the next 12 hours. Weakening will occur
due to the passage over the Yucatan peninsula, and restrengthening
over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche is forecast.
Although northerly shear could inhibit strengthening somewhat,
Franklin is predicted to become a hurricane before making
landfall in mainland Mexico. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus forecast.
 
Based on center fixes from the aircraft along with geostationary
and microwave imagery, the initial motion is northwestward or
310/11 kt.  The track forecast reasoning remains basically
unchanged.  A mid-level high pressure area near the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coast should force Franklin to take a
west-northwestward to westward course for the next several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 18.6N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 19.1N  87.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 24H  08/1800Z 19.9N  89.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/0600Z 20.3N  91.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  09/1800Z 20.5N  94.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  10/1800Z 20.5N  98.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 96H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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