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Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

Franklin continues to become better organized, with increasing
inner-core convection and banding features.  The initial intensity
is set at 60 kt based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface
winds from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft.
Observations from the aircraft indicate that the central pressure is
falling, which presages intensification.  Radar observations from
the NOAA aircraft indicate that a well-defined eyewall has not yet
developed, however. The tropical cyclone will continue to traverse
SSTs of near 30 deg C until landfall, with northerly shear possibly
impeding strengthening.  However, the only evidence of this shear at
this time is a slight restriction of the upper-level outflow over
the northern portion of the circulation. Given the otherwise
favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment, additional
strengthening is forecast up to landfall.  The official intensity
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance.

Center fixes from the aircraft give a generally westward motion, or
270/11 kt.  A large mid-level high pressure system to the north of
Franklin should maintain the generally westward track until
landfall in eastern Mexico.  A slightly more southward motion could
occur while the center crosses the coast, due to interaction with
the topography of Mexico.  The official track forecast is close to
the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 20.2N  93.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 20.1N  95.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 19.7N  97.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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