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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

After strengthening quickly throughout the day, the intensity of
Jose appears to have leveled off this evening.  Nonetheless, Jose
is an impressive category 3 hurricane.  The eye remains quite
distinct and the convective cloud pattern is fairly symmetric.  In
addition, the upper-level outflow is well established, indicative of
the favorable wind flow pattern aloft. The initial intensity is
held at 105 kt, in accordance with the Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB
and SAB.

Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24
hours while Jose remains in relatively conducive environmental
conditions.  Thereafter, a slow weakening trend is forecast due to
an increase in wind shear and a progressively drier air mass.  The
models are in fair agreement, and the NHC official intensity
forecast is in line with the consensus models.  This forecast is
slightly lower than the previous one.

The initial motion is 280/16 kt.  The track forecast philosophy is
unchanged from earlier.  A subtropical ridge should cause Jose to
move west-northwestward for the next couple of days, taking the
hurricane very near the northern Leeward Islands Friday night and
Saturday.  After that time, the hurricane is expected to move
northwestward and then northward into a weakness in the ridge.  The
NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and
near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Antigua has issued a
tropical storm warning for Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 15.6N  53.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 16.1N  56.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 16.8N  58.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 17.8N  60.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 19.2N  62.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 22.6N  66.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 25.8N  68.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 27.1N  67.4W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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