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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane, the first so far into Jose,
found the hurricane was much stronger than previously estimated. A
standard 90 percent reduction of the 146-kt peak flight-level wind
at 700 mb yields an intensity estimate of about 130 kt, which is
the basis for the initial intensity. In the short term, Jose is in a
fairly favorable environment. Although the SHIPS-diagnosed shear is
near 20 kt, the hurricane is small enough that it has thus far
remained sheltered from the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Irma to
the west.  Internal dynamics will therefore most likely be the
driving factor of Jose's intensity for the next day or so.  After
that time, all of the intensity guidance forecasts weakening,
perhaps assuming that eventually the shear will begin to affect the
hurricane.  Due to the very high initial intensity of Jose, the
intensity forecast is quite a bit higher than the model consensus,
even after adjusting for the initial intensity. However, the NHC
forecast still follows the model trend of steady weakening beyond 24
hours.

The aircraft data also indicated that the center of Jose is a
little farther south than previously estimated.  Because of that,
the NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly south and west of
the previous one.  Otherwise, there is no significant change to
the track forecast, and Jose is still expected to turn northwest
before reaching the Leeward Islands on Saturday, as the subtropical
ridge begins to retreat eastward.  There is fairly good agreement
between the global models for the first 48 h.  After that, it is
still unclear if Jose will begin to move east with an approaching
mid-latitude mid-level trough, or if it will remain trapped in
light steering flow.  As a course of least regret, my forecast
splits the difference between these scenarios and shows a slow
northeastward motion at day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 16.3N  57.1W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 16.8N  59.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 17.7N  61.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 19.0N  62.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 20.6N  65.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 24.2N  68.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 26.4N  68.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 28.0N  67.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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