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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

Jose's satellite presentation continues to impress.  A nearly
perfectly symmetric CDO surrounds a clear eye, and there is still
no sign of weakening due to shear associated with the outflow of
Hurricane Irma.  Since the earlier reconnaissance flight, Dvorak
intensity estimates have actually increased, however they are still
lower than what the plane found.  The initial intensity has been
held at 130 kt, out of respect of the earlier in-situ observations,
but given the current cloud pattern, this could be conservative.
Another reconnaissance flight this evening will give a better
estimate of the intensity.

Internal dynamics are still expected to be the primary factor in
the intensity for the next 12 hours or so.  After that, all of the
intensity guidance continues to show weakening throughout the
forecast, though it is worth noting that Jose has already exceeded
all previous forecasts.  The NHC forecast continues to follow the
trend of the models, but is a little above the consensus for most
of the forecast period.  Given the small size of the inner-core of
Jose, if the shear does finally increase, weakening could occur at a
faster rate than indicated.

The global models have come into very good agreement on the track
of Jose for the next 2 days, and there is finally a high degree of
confidence in that part of the forecast.  The eye of Jose should
turn toward the northwest tonight and pass just east of Barbuda on
Saturday. Beyond 48 h, the extent to which an approaching mid-level
trough will cause the hurricane to turn toward the north, and
eventually toward the east still varies from model to model, however
the model spread has decreased.  Both the GFS and ECMWF show Jose
being left behind by the trough at some point and trapped in light
steering flow.  The forecast continues to split these two models,
and is very close to the previous official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 16.6N  58.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 17.3N  60.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 18.4N  61.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 19.9N  64.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 21.7N  66.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 24.9N  68.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 27.0N  68.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 28.0N  66.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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