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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this
evening and found that the hurricane is even a little stronger than
previously estimated.  An average of the aircraft's flight level
winds, SFMR values, and dropsonde data support an intensity of 135
kt, making Jose very near category 5 strength.  It is surprising
that Jose is as strong as the aircraft data suggests, since the
hurricane's satellite appearance has degraded a little during the
last several hours.

Jose is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt.  A west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected overnight and on Saturday, taking the
core of Jose just east of the northern Leeward Islands.  The
hurricane is forecast to slow down and turn northward in 3 to 4 days
when it moves around the ridge and toward a large mid- to
upper-level low over the north Atlantic.  The models then indicate
that the upper low will bypass Jose causing it to drift eastward or
meander at the end of the forecast period.  The track forecast is
fairly close to the previous advisory and lies nearest to the
various consensus models.

Fluctuations in strength are likely overnight and on Saturday due to
the potential for eyewall replacement cycles, but Jose is expected
to remain at category 4 strength when it is closest to the northern
Leeward Islands.  After that time, the models insist that a slow
weakening trend should occur through the remainder of the forecast
period due to an increase in wind shear and drier air.  The NHC
intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the
short term, but then falls in line with the HCCA and ICON consensus
models from 48 to 120 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 16.9N  59.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 17.8N  60.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 19.1N  62.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 20.7N  64.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 22.4N  66.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 25.3N  68.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 26.8N  68.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 27.7N  66.3W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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